高可预测性公司榜
根据价值大师独创的可预测性评级指标，精选出长期回报更佳的股票。
什么是可预测性评级
价值大师对沃伦·巴菲特 (Warren Buffett) “以合理价格买入优质公司”的策略，在1998年至2008年间的表现进行了回测研究；价值大师着重研究了巴菲特看好的公司，发现这些公司具有可预测性高且收益稳定等特点。
通过这项研究，价值大师提出了公司可预测性评级的概念。如下表所示，企业的可预测评级与股票的长期回报之间存在很强的相关性。
| 可预测性评级 | 5颗星 | 4.5颗星 | 4颗星 | 3.5颗星 | 3颗星 | 2.5颗星 | 2颗星 | 1颗星 *不可预测 | 全部公司 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
年化平均收益 （1998年1月 - 2008年8月） | 12.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
十年期间亏损的 公司数量百分比% | 3% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 18% | 16% | 45% | 37% |
可以清楚地看到，具有高可预测性评级的公司，其股票表现更佳，长期持有出现亏损的可能性也大幅下降。
如何按照高可预测性公司榜投资
1. 选择市值最大的前25个股票
2. 把要投入的资金以同等的比重（4%）投入每个股票
3. 任何时候开始都可以，每年年初更新一次
| 贵州茅台 |
¥1697.71
|
19.20%
|
14.80%
|
16.70%
|
¥21,326.60亿
|
27.34
|
1.85
|
¥1875.77
|
9.49
|
1,692.35
|
-0.32
|
1,745.81
|
2.76%
|
1.52%
| |||
| 中国移动 |
¥98.52
|
-0.10%
|
3.20%
|
8.40%
|
¥14,593.91亿
|
15.84
|
4.92
|
¥72.24
|
-36.38
|
25.81
|
-281.71
|
65.02
|
-51.52%
|
4.30%
| |||
| 长江电力 |
¥25.98
|
6.10%
|
3.90%
|
8.60%
|
¥6,356.84亿
|
23.13
|
5.88
|
¥14.14
|
-83.73
|
26.74
|
2.84
|
17.22
|
-50.87%
|
3.28%
| |||
| 比亚迪 |
¥216.92
|
28.20%
|
38.00%
|
41.60%
|
¥6,078.92亿
|
20.72
|
0.50
|
¥360.13
|
39.77
|
309.18
|
29.84
|
324.11
|
33.07%
|
0.51%
| |||
| 五粮液 |
¥155.12
|
19.50%
|
17.10%
|
10.90%
|
¥6,021.15亿
|
18.99
|
1.11
|
¥237.17
|
34.60
|
244.25
|
36.49
|
229.81
|
32.50%
|
2.40%
| |||
| 紫金矿业 |
¥18.43
|
24.00%
|
31.20%
|
7.90%
|
¥4,750.08亿
|
22.18
|
0.69
|
¥26.69
|
30.95
|
6.06
|
-204.13
|
12.72
|
-44.89%
|
1.31%
| |||
| 美的集团 |
¥65.41
|
11.50%
|
8.50%
|
19.70%
|
¥4,562.56亿
|
12.95
|
1.47
|
¥126.41
|
48.26
|
115.83
|
43.53
|
95.59
|
31.57%
|
4.59%
| |||
| 山西汾酒 |
¥259.42
|
35.50%
|
46.80%
|
30.10%
|
¥3,164.83亿
|
26.63
|
0.57
|
¥304.53
|
14.81
|
264.13
|
1.78
|
274.08
|
5.35%
|
1.25%
| |||
| 海康威视 |
¥33.03
|
18.50%
|
6.20%
|
19.90%
|
¥3,081.90亿
|
21.56
|
3.23
|
¥38.08
|
13.26
|
39.09
|
15.50
|
46.35
|
28.74%
|
2.07%
| |||
| 万华化学 |
¥91.28
|
16.10%
|
12.40%
|
13.00%
|
¥2,865.96亿
|
16.95
|
1.34
|
¥168.28
|
45.76
|
-65.56
|
239.23
|
151.45
|
39.73%
|
1.75%
| |||
| 泸州老窖 |
¥187.01
|
24.90%
|
31.40%
|
28.00%
|
¥2,752.76亿
|
19.46
|
0.62
|
¥298.56
|
37.36
|
256.31
|
27.04
|
160.43
|
-16.57%
|
2.24%
| |||
| 牧原股份 |
¥48.56
|
--
|
43.20%
|
-107.80%
|
¥2,653.98亿
|
亏损
|
--
|
¥-11.31
|
529.35
|
5.00
|
-871.20
|
-27.56
|
276.20%
|
1.52%
| |||
| 陕西煤业 |
¥25.90
|
--
|
25.60%
|
-25.00%
|
¥2,511.01亿
|
13.21
|
0.42
|
¥75.5
|
65.70
|
88.19
|
70.63
|
67.95
|
61.88%
|
8.59%
| |||
| 中国建筑 |
¥5.89
|
12.30%
|
8.20%
|
7.10%
|
¥2,451.42亿
|
4.50
|
0.44
|
¥27.29
|
78.42
|
-15.22
|
138.70
|
25.73
|
77.11%
|
4.31%
| |||
| 立讯精密 |
¥32.86
|
37.20%
|
38.40%
|
14.30%
|
¥2,358.69亿
|
20.28
|
0.45
|
¥59.34
|
44.62
|
20.76
|
-58.29
|
53.41
|
38.48%
|
0.39%
| |||
| 格力电器 |
¥41.56
|
11.10%
|
5.30%
|
19.50%
|
¥2,340.41亿
|
7.78
|
1.35
|
¥96.58
|
56.97
|
187.06
|
77.78
|
60.20
|
30.96%
|
2.40%
| |||
| 海天味业 |
¥37.91
|
13.90%
|
6.40%
|
-2.00%
|
¥2,108.02亿
|
36.10
|
5.80
|
¥22.21
|
-70.69
|
14.89
|
-154.60
|
16.04
|
-136.35%
|
1.87%
| |||
| 顺丰控股 |
¥38.52
|
31.10%
|
13.50%
|
-6.60%
|
¥1,885.63亿
|
22.14
|
1.60
|
¥55.81
|
30.98
|
33.89
|
-13.66
|
24.10
|
-59.83%
|
1.58%
| |||
| 伊利股份 |
¥29.23
|
14.00%
|
13.70%
|
18.30%
|
¥1,860.81亿
|
14.62
|
0.98
|
¥37.64
|
22.34
|
62.56
|
53.28
|
61.45
|
52.43%
|
3.64%
| |||
| 国电南瑞 |
¥22.46
|
12.40%
|
13.10%
|
5.80%
|
¥1,804.17亿
|
24.96
|
1.88
|
¥16.94
|
-32.59
|
24.34
|
7.72
|
21.88
|
-2.65%
|
1.71%
| |||
| 中国核电 |
¥9.47
|
12.30%
|
8.20%
|
8.70%
|
¥1,788.25亿
|
16.94
|
2.04
|
¥8.22
|
-15.21
|
-17.40
|
154.43
|
7.35
|
-28.84%
|
1.80%
| |||
| 京东方A |
¥4.37
|
1.40%
|
14.00%
|
--
|
¥1,632.01亿
|
50.23
|
3.03
|
¥1.19
|
-267.23
|
5.45
|
19.82
|
2.90
|
-50.69%
|
1.41%
| |||
| 汇川技术 |
¥59.97
|
25.50%
|
36.10%
|
27.00%
|
¥1,605.94亿
|
33.50
|
0.87
|
¥59.81
|
-0.27
|
16.05
|
-273.64
|
24.82
|
-141.62%
|
0.59%
| |||
| 中国中免 |
¥78.01
|
22.30%
|
10.20%
|
1.80%
|
¥1,601.36亿
|
24.02
|
2.19
|
¥109.13
|
28.52
|
168.19
|
53.62
|
98.21
|
20.57%
|
1.00%
| |||
| 中国中铁 |
¥6.90
|
11.80%
|
3.90%
|
13.80%
|
¥1,587.80亿
|
5.41
|
1.06
|
¥26.47
|
73.93
|
-20.95
|
132.94
|
33.69
|
79.52%
|
2.88%
| |||
| 阳光电源 |
¥104.88
|
36.50%
|
55.40%
|
135.30%
|
¥1,557.63亿
|
15.49
|
0.23
|
¥241.94
|
56.65
|
96.72
|
-8.44
|
217.74
|
51.83%
|
0.21%
| |||
| 北方华创 |
¥293.16
|
--
|
49.10%
|
51.40%
|
¥1,556.51亿
|
35.14
|
0.70
|
¥267.41
|
-9.63
|
32.04
|
-814.98
|
240.67
|
-21.81%
|
0.15%
| |||
| 隆基绿能 |
¥19.56
|
50.00%
|
29.00%
|
-11.60%
|
¥1,482.27亿
|
32.07
|
0.40
|
¥52.38
|
62.66
|
-2.75
|
811.27
|
47.14
|
58.51%
|
2.02%
| |||
| 洋河股份 |
¥96.45
|
6.90%
|
4.70%
|
-0.30%
|
¥1,452.97亿
|
14.10
|
2.96
|
¥93.03
|
-3.68
|
150.58
|
35.95
|
106.88
|
9.76%
|
3.85%
| |||
| 片仔癀 |
¥233.72
|
25.00%
|
21.00%
|
18.00%
|
¥1,410.07亿
|
46.93
|
2.22
|
¥156.41
|
-49.43
|
102.13
|
-128.85
|
140.77
|
-66.03%
|
0.53%
| |||
| 中际旭创 |
¥173.17
|
--
|
15.90%
|
104.60%
|
¥1,390.86亿
|
46.43
|
2.78
|
¥122.56
|
-41.29
|
-4.52
|
3,931.19
|
110.31
|
-56.98%
|
0.11%
| |||
| 上港集团 |
¥5.67
|
2.80%
|
5.40%
|
35.20%
|
¥1,320.21亿
|
9.88
|
1.80
|
¥9.93
|
42.90
|
2.33
|
-143.35
|
6.07
|
6.59%
|
3.04%
| |||
| 古井贡酒 |
¥259.24
|
23.50%
|
18.00%
|
42.30%
|
¥1,201.78亿
|
26.95
|
1.49
|
¥301.59
|
14.04
|
28.62
|
-805.80
|
271.44
|
4.49%
|
1.16%
| |||
| 国投电力 |
¥16.11
|
-0.30%
|
1.60%
|
26.40%
|
¥1,200.87亿
|
17.29
|
10.34
|
¥11.24
|
-43.33
|
1.67
|
-864.67
|
12.30
|
-30.98%
|
1.71%
| |||
| 爱尔眼科 |
¥12.82
|
29.30%
|
19.60%
|
33.00%
|
¥1,195.90亿
|
34.10
|
1.53
|
¥13.34
|
3.90
|
13.13
|
2.36
|
12.01
|
-6.74%
|
0.77%
| |||
| 福耀玻璃 |
¥46.60
|
5.30%
|
7.20%
|
47.90%
|
¥1,184.34亿
|
19.91
|
2.65
|
¥28.17
|
-65.42
|
14.97
|
-211.29
|
28.69
|
-62.43%
|
2.76%
| |||
| 中国铁建 |
¥9.01
|
10.10%
|
7.50%
|
4.20%
|
¥1,144.76亿
|
5.18
|
0.47
|
¥33.96
|
73.47
|
-16.10
|
155.96
|
34.63
|
73.98%
|
3.09%
| |||
| 龙源电力 |
¥18.35
|
9.20%
|
2.90%
|
3.50%
|
¥1,128.72亿
|
24.86
|
6.74
|
¥15.94
|
-15.12
|
-12.84
|
242.91
|
9.74
|
-88.40%
|
0.63%
| |||
| 荣盛石化 |
¥10.58
|
63.10%
|
39.30%
|
1,945.80%
|
¥1,071.28亿
|
32.06
|
0.85
|
¥3.65
|
-189.86
|
10.05
|
-5.27
|
8.89
|
-19.01%
|
1.40%
| |||
| 科大讯飞 |
¥43.87
|
18.90%
|
6.60%
|
62.80%
|
¥1,015.76亿
|
250.69
|
21.94
|
¥3.5
|
-1,153.43
|
-19.15
|
329.09
|
4.76
|
-821.64%
|
0.23%
|